One of the new arguments today against Alberta pursuing greater sovereignty or full independence is the claim that we would suddenly lose access to our largest customer, the United States. Critics say: “If Alberta goes it alone, the Americans will just buy their oil from Venezuela instead.” This reduces Alberta’s future to a single commodity, as if our prosperity, innovation, and resilience depend solely on oil exports. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Alberta’s economy is diverse – from agriculture and technology to tourism and manufacturing – but energy remains a cornerstone of our strength. The real question isn’t whether independence threatens our oil sales; it’s whether staying tethered to Ottawa’s failed policies continues to sabotage them. The evidence points clearly: Alberta’s energy security aligns perfectly with American national interests, far more than unreliable sources like Venezuela.
Why Ottawa Has Blocked Our Path to Tidewater
Federal policies have repeatedly blocked pipelines to new markets, keeping Alberta’s oil landlocked and discounted. This isn’t just environmental caution – it’s geopolitical weakness. As noted by advocates in recent discussions, Ottawa’s resistance to west coast access appears influenced by external pressures. China has no interest in seeing stable, reliable Alberta oil reach key Asian allies like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. In a potential conflict, Beijing would prefer those nations cut off from secure supplies.
(Jeffrey Rath explains: “Ottawa has shut in Alberta Oil because China doesn’t want Japan and Korea to have a stable supply. That’s why the US will support an Alberta pipeline to tidewater through Washington or Oregon.”)
That’s why proposals for pipelines to tidewater – particularly routes through friendly U.S. states like Montana, Idaho, Washington, or Oregon – are gaining traction south of the border. These projects are being discussed at high levels in Washington, D.C., as part of broader North American energy security. The United States recognises Alberta as a stable, democratic partner – not a distant, unstable regime.
(Jeffrey Rath announces: “A west coast pipeline through Montana, Idaho and Washington was on the agenda today in DC. THIS IS HAPPENING! Alberta will be free!”)
An independent Alberta would negotiate directly as a sovereign nation, free from Ottawa’s vetoes and foreign-influenced delays. We could partner with the U.S. on infrastructure that serves mutual interests: supplying clean, ethical energy to Pacific markets while bolstering defences against authoritarian influence.
Venezuela? A Short-Term Distraction, Not a Replacement
The idea that the U.S. would permanently switch to Venezuelan oil ignores deep structural realities. As heavy oil expert @RazorOil – with 18 patents in the field – recently explained, Venezuela’s vast reserves face uniquely difficult geology, low recovery rates, rampant corruption, logistical nightmares, and massive capital requirements (e.g., $30,000 per flowing barrel for new heavy oil projects). Even optimistic estimates suggest years to meaningfully increase production.
Meanwhile, U.S. Midwest refineries (PADD 2) process around 4 million bbl/d of crude, predominantly from Canada – with imports hitting record highs.
(Expert thread debunking rapid Venezuelan production growth, including EIA graph showing surging Canadian crude imports to the U.S. Midwest)
No serious strategist sees Venezuela displacing Alberta’s reliable, high-quality supply from a trusted democratic partner.
For a bit of comic relief on this point, consider a recent viral clip from Venezuela itself. A local man quipped about foreign powers eyeing their resources: “Those who say the U.S. is only interested in our oil, I ask you: What do you think the Russians and the Chinese wanted here? The recipe for arepas?” It’s a humorous admission that everyone wants oil – but it underscores why stable partners like Alberta (or a sovereign Alberta) win out over volatile alternatives.
Alberta’s Future: Prosperous and Independent
Independence isn’t about isolating ourselves; it’s about unlocking our full potential. As a sovereign nation, Alberta would control its resources, negotiate trade deals directly, and build infrastructure without federal interference. We would remain a top energy exporter, but on our terms – with stronger ties to allies who share our values.
The Alberta Prosperity Project is dedicated to educating Albertans on these opportunities. For more on why sovereignty makes sense, visit our education resources at https://albertaprosperityproject.com/education/. Explore our proposed policies at https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ZS1U179FHmlaqMvEFa5Lx0ze9e5QBmNH/edit. And join the conversation at www.albertaprosperity.com.
The fearmongers are wrong. Independence doesn’t endanger our oil market – it secures our future. Let’s build an Alberta that prospers for generations to come.