Will Canada Try And Stop Alberta From Separating?

It is almost certain that Canada will try and stop Alberta from separating. Here’s why:

1. Alberta is Canada’s largest provincial economy per-capita. For Canada, losing Alberta means losing $billions worth of economic benefits every year.
2. Geographically, Alberta lies at the heart of Canada’s coast-to-coast corridor. If Alberta becomes an independent nation, $billions worth of goods moving from Vancouver’s port to the east and vice versa could be interrupted.
3. Canada is broken, so Alberta separation makes Ottawa’s frail hold of the country even weaker.

These are just a few of the reasons why Canada will try and stop Alberta from separating. Here are a few tools Ottawa might use to try and achieve their goal:

1. Military: If Alberta proceeds with independence, Canada can send the military into Alberta.
2. Money: If Alberta proceeds with independence, Canada can send Alberta money as a sweetener to stay in the country.
3. Manipulation: Manipulation: “If Alberta proceeds with independence, Canada can simply refuse to hold serious negotiations until momentum for independence simmers.

These are common fears the APP hears regarding Federal interference in Alberta separation. But while these concerns are understandable, the APP is confident they will not defeat Alberta independence for the following reasons:

1. Military
   1. The Supreme Court has ruled that a province has the democratic right to pursue independence through a referendum vote.¹ Everything about the present independence movement is entirely legal.
   2. Contrary to popular belief, Ottawa can’t just send the armed forces into whatever province it wishes. Instead, a written request from the provincial Attorney General is needed to launch Canadian Armed Forces in the province.² No formal request for Alberta’s Attorney General? No Canadian Armed Forces dispatched into Alberta.
   3. Even if it were possible, Canada deploying the military into Alberta would only make Alberta want to separate from Canada more! Using soldiers to suppress a lawful, peaceful process would be politically explosive, risk non-cooperation from provincial institutions (courts, police, public service), and damage Canada’s international standing.
2. Money
   1. Alberta independence is about so much more than money. It’s true that Albertans are tired of paying Ottawa $billions every year, and it’s true that economic advantages are a critical component of Alberta’s desire for independence, but there are various other components Albertans are considering as well.
   2. Fundamentally, Alberta’s grievances are structural. While money is an important component of the conversation, Ottawa controls our resources, infrastructure, markets, and political representation. Even if Ottawa sends Alberta money, those issues still remain.
   3. Money is temporary. Suppose Ottawa writes Alberta a $100 billion cheque to stay in Canada. No doubt, $100 billion is a lot of money, but it won’t last forever. Soon, that money will be gone and Alberta will be stuck trying to navigate the same problematic federal policies.
3. Manipulation
   1. As long as Alberta’s referendum is clear, it will be extremely difficult for Ottawa to manipulate the separation process. Regarding separation, the Supreme Court has ruled how, why, and when, negotiations between Alberta and Ottawa must take place.³
   2. With a clear and unmistakable referendum question, Alberta will finally have the leverage required to force Ottawa to the negotiating table. Canada will have a constitutional requirement to engage in good–faith discussions with Alberta.
   3. The longer Ottawa stalls, the more reason they give Alberta to separate. Not only so, but the longer Canada stalls, the more instability they introduce into Canadian markets, reputation, and relations.

While Ottawa might try to dissuade Alberta from separating, Alberta’s independence movement is committed to doing what’s best for Alberta, not Ottawa.

¹ https://decisions.scc-csc.ca/scc-csc/news/en/item/642/index.do?iframe=true&utm
² https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/n-5/page-39.html?
³ https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/pdf/c-31.8.pdf