Alberta is at a Crossroads

Monday’s Federal Election will Impact Alberta’s Future

As Canada’s 2025 snap election arrives, Albertans are again at a pivotal crossroads.

This federal contest has sharpened the debate over Alberta’s future in Confederation, with the province’s prosperity, sovereignty, and even its place in Canada under the microscope.

The contest between Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and Mark Carney’s Liberals is closer than many expected, and the outcome will have profound implications for Alberta’s economy, energy sector, and sovereignty movement. The pursuit of Alberta’s sovereignty remains critical regardless of the outcome. Leaders change, provincial sovereignty, once secured, is less likely to go backwards.

Let’s take a final run through the campaigns, policies and potential outcomes.

First, The Shifting Political Landscape in Alberta

The 2025 campaign has seen surprising gains for the Liberals in Alberta, especially in urban ridings like Edmonton Centre and Calgary, where demographic changes and a collapse in NDP support have made some seats competitive for the first time in years¹^,²^,⁴.
Polling now shows Liberal support in Alberta has doubled to around 30%, with the Conservatives still dominant but facing real challenges in select urban districts².
Advance polling turnout has set new records, signaling high engagement and uncertainty in key ridings².

Poilievre’s “Canada First” Pitch

Pierre Poilievre’s campaign has focused on repealing Liberal energy regulations, scrapping the carbon tax, and promising a rapid expansion of oil and gas development⁴^,⁶.
At his only Calgary rally, Poilievre pledged to pass major affordability, justice, and employment reforms within his first 100 days, including fast-tracking energy projects by repealing the Impact Assessment Act and ending the oil and gas emissions cap⁴^,⁶.
He has promised to put Alberta “back in the driver’s seat” on energy, criticizing Mark Carney’s climate policies as harmful to both the province and the country’s economic future⁴^,⁶.
However, his push to deregulate and accelerate project approvals has drawn warnings from Indigenous leaders, who caution that bypassing consultation could paralyze development and spark legal battles⁶.

Carney’s Global Investment and Energy Vision

Mark Carney has made Alberta a centerpiece of his campaign, promising to make the province the “heart of a new superpower in both clean and conventional energy”⁵^,⁷.
Critics in Alberta remain skeptical, noting Carney’s lack of firm commitments on oil and gas pipelines and fears that his climate policies could echo Trudeau-era tensions³^,⁷.
Carney’s platform includes a single federal office to approve major energy projects within two years and a commitment to collaborate with Indigenous communities, provinces, and the private sector⁵^,⁷.
He has promised to build new pipelines, but only with provincial consent, and to position Alberta as a leader in both low-carbon oil and gas and renewables⁵^,⁷.
Carney’s approach aims to reduce reliance on U.S. markets by diversifying export destinations and investing in energy security⁷.

Rising Sovereignty Sentiment

The possibility of a Liberal victory under Carney has reignited separatist sentiment among Albertans, with recent polls suggesting up to a third of the province would consider independence if the Liberals win³.
Grassroots frustration is growing, especially if Alberta feels further sidelined in Ottawa¹^,³.
Premier Danielle Smith and the Alberta Prosperity Project continue to advocate for the Alberta Sovereignty within a United Canada Act as a tool to resist federal overreach and assert provincial autonomy³^,⁷.

Key Issues for Alberta in the 2025 Election

Issue	Poilievre (Conservatives)	Carney (Liberals)
Energy Policy	Deregulation, end carbon tax, fast-track oil/gas projects	Diversification, clean tech, single office for approvals
Indigenous Consultation	Risk of bypassing, potential legal challenges	Emphasizes collaboration, but details unclear
Climate Policy	Rollback of emissions caps, focus on resource exports	Maintain/expand carbon pricing, invest in renewables
Federal-Provincial Relations	Reassert Alberta’s control over resources	National standards, but promises provincial collaboration
U.S. Trade/Trump Tariffs	Prioritize U.S. market, push for direct deals	Diversify exports, reduce U.S. dependence
Sovereignty/Autonomy	Support for Sovereignty Act, provincial control	No support for separatism, but open to provincial input

Risks and Opportunities for Alberta

Federal Overreach: Carney’s climate agenda could revive old tensions, while Poilievre’s deregulation risks international challenges³^,⁶.
Economic Volatility: Both leaders must contend with U.S. trade uncertainty and global energy market swings-neither has a clear solution to Alberta’s exposure⁴, ⁵.
Neglect of Provincial Priorities: Alberta’s resource jurisdiction remains at risk, with both federal platforms viewed as prioritizing national over provincial needs³^,⁶.
Sovereignty Movement: The Alberta Sovereignty within a United Canada Act remains the province’s main legislative shield, but calls for more robust action-including direct trade negotiations and local control of pensions-are growing louder³^,⁷.

The Path Forward

Regardless of Monday’s outcome, Alberta’s unique economic and political challenges remain. The 2025 election has underscored the province’s precarious position in Confederation and the urgent need for proactive sovereignty measures to:

Resist federal policy shocks (carbon taxes, energy regulations)
Secure direct trade partnerships with U.S. states and global allies
Protect Alberta’s prosperity amid global energy transitions and political uncertainty³^,⁷

Albertans are encouraged to:

Register support for sovereignty initiatives like the Alberta Prosperity Project’s petition for a referendum
Advocate for provincial control over pensions, taxation, and resource policies

In a fractured political landscape, sovereignty is increasingly viewed not as a radical option, but as Alberta’s safeguard against an unpredictable federal future.

Sources:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgkg8r85n1eo

https://globalnews.ca/news/11149396/canada-election-2025-edmonton-ridings

https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/bell-alberta-separatism-mark-carney-liberals-win-canada-federal-election-2025

https://calgaryherald.com/news/national/federal_election/conservative-leader-poilievre-calgary-federal-election-2025

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKiX6pZkqvQ

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/qa-what-canadas-election-means-climate-action-and-ties-europe-amid-trump-era-tensions

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-liberal-mark-carney-canada-calgary-danielle-smith-1.7505385

https://www.alberta.ca/alberta-sovereignty-within-a-united-canada-act

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_Sovereignty_Within_a_United_Canada_Act

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-premier-danielle-smith-wants-to-strategize-on-provincial-sovereignty-with-quebec-s-premier-1.7499599

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-separatism-danielle-smith-david-parker-analysis-1.7511192