True sovereignty— the citizens of Alberta deserve sovereignty and powers truly independent from the influences and power-play of demographically-bigger provinces like Ontario and Quebec. However, is doubling the population, as proposed by Alberta Premiere Danielle Smith, the way to do it?
Alberta first sentiments are on a rise throughout the province, which is certainly welcomed by Premier Danielle Smith, a staunch Alberta sovereignty supporter and champion of The Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act. However, as politicians get caught in the moment, probably in seizing a moment, they often forget that the roots of their efforts lead back to the people whom they should be serving, the actual constituents who voted them into their position. Finest exhibit recently would be Premier Smith’s comments on the Shaun Newman Podcast in January. As she says that her plan is to become aggressive in having Alberta hit a ten million populace, this raises the question, ‘how far is too far?’ Oftentimes, it is helpful to circle back to the origin of their efforts— which is to fight for the rights of Alberta, and to finally put Alberta first.
The 10M leap
While Smith undeniably has a point in hauling in political power by doubling the population of Alberta, a healthy-minded citizen should ask how this would affect life in Alberta and whether the economy and infrastructure would be able to sustain those many immigrants. Still, while it might be a potential solution for establishing a more powerful province, and while this is a chance for Alberta to get out the junior partnership treatment given by bigger provinces, would this really be worth potentially diminishing the quality of life of Albertans?
Indeed, with Alberta being a large province within Canada, we simply cannot continue to be swept aside by the federal government. With a sudden mega-population increase, Alberta will be able to assert its sovereign, civic, and political rights. Instead of federal control, with the population leverage, Albertans can assert that the taxes they pay can be used directly by Albertans themselves. The primary concern is that Alberta should be in control of their own tax system, to use taxes in the way they see fit.
It is undeniable that the premier’s supposed ‘innovation’ has a definite logic, however it is a wager between comfortable living and a confining, discomfited, and uneasy life for the locals. If we look at it logically, would Alberta’s infrastructures, roads, educational system, and healthcare system be able to accommodate a sudden surge and doubling of the population?
Housing, roads, and infrastructures
Alberta has been busy creating a record of 4,350 new homes under construction just under the month of July, as reported by Al Beeber of Lethbridge Herald. With 3 people per housing and an estimated two percent annual population growth per year, it is suggested that Alberta can accept a hundred thousand immigrants every twelve months.
Hiren Mansukhani of Calgary Herald pointed out that two-thirds of the population increase are immigrants. What’s also notable is that the province’s populace already grew to 202,324 residents by the year 2023 with an actual growth rate of 4.4 percent, the highest recorded since 1981. From Statista, 54,287 people have recently immigrated to Alberta during 2023.
To cope, “housing starts”, which are constructed housing units in urban centers consisting of apartments, semi-detached units, and multiples, are boosted in numbers. In fact, CBC News reported that according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Alberta has been improving in terms of construction activity compared to 2023 with an increase of 54 percent. Alberta Economic Dashboard also noted 4,352 housing starts in July 2024. The construction activity in the first half of the year is a record since data from 1980. Judging from the 54,287 increase in people, this should be a fine track for now.
However, while stable during this point of time, it is unsure whether at this housing start construction rate, Alberta can handle a sudden population sprout. Given the current statistics and realistic outlook, if Alberta can only create specifically 36,022 units or more annually (as shown in Statistics Canada, year 2023), then the motive of hastily allowing the doubling of the population is not at all possible. At this rate, it should take at least three decades to fully establish and handle the population growth with relevance to housing, and definitely not just in the near future.
Of course, coming in with the surge of people would be the question of whether the roads can handle more cars on the highways. Would this not bring about more traffic? Therefore, bringing the need to increase roads or widen them at least? Yes, it would.
Educational system
Another aspect to look upon in considering the doubling of the population would be Alberta’s educational system. Would the access to education be hindered due to the doubling number of students? With close to one million people coming in the last decade, which is one fourth of the current population, Alberta faces continuous challenges due to the demographic changes brought upon by immigration.
Albertan schools are already suffering due to budget cuts; which would probably be even more deepened once population has doubled. In fact, according to released funding profiles, and particularly from a media release from The Alberta Teachers’ Association, 13 school boards situated in communities that are increasing in terms of population are reported to receive less provincial funding compared to last year. Some of these might even incur larger class sizes and program cuts in the class resumptions. If the population were to be doubled, these kinds of issues should first be addressed .
Medical care issues
Alberta’s Healthcare system should also be considered since overwhelming population growth can definitely negatively affect the quality of care. This could make it more difficult for Albertans to access the necessary care they require, lowering their quality of life.
More than that, it has been reported by Paul Parks of Edmonton Journal that both citizens and physicians in Alberta have been airing out their sentiments to the Government of Alberta for many months now. Moreover, 72 percent or seven out of 10 citizens are claiming that the quality of the medical system in Alberta has declined. Forty-four percent out of said statistics say that it is much worse.
With the population growing, shortages and increased demand are becoming more apparent. Alberta’s medical system is seemingly on the decline and nearing a breaking point, with 800,000 to 950,000 patients lacking basic primary care. While there is some growth in the numbers of physicians in the province, Alberta has lost over 2,000 physicians from practice from 2019 to 2024.
However, even with all of these concerns, the government’s health-care budget is still not being recalibrated to accommodate population surges. How much more would this decline if the province were to accommodate 10 million people?
Unemployment challenges
Another factor to look at is Alberta’s unemployment rate. Alberta Economic Dashboard claims that the unemployment rate was 7.1% in July 2024, up 23.1% compared to the data collected from July 2023. Albertans are already having difficulty landing a job, and the unemployment rate would balloon after bringing in more immigrants, let alone double Alberta’s existing population. Further, the Government of Canada has admitted that newly-settled immigrants are already having a hard time finding employment matching their skill sets and experience.
Potential cultural degradation
It is important to acknowledge that Alberta is very welcoming. However, there is obvious risk in letting immigration double the population. Alberta should exercise its right to screen people aspiring to move here. Immigrants should be willing to share the same social and cultural values that the province uphold.
The need for demographic growth and political clout are indeed pivotal in establishing sovereignty within Canada . However, the goal of increasing Alberta’s population to 10 million is not sensible without first addressing infrastructure, education, housing, healthcare, and cultural concerns. We need to put the Albertans who were here first.
Population growth is possible, however, the current state of health-care, unemployment, infrastructure, and education should be fixed first and ensured that these can accommodate the current population, let alone an increase. Any drastic changes such as the doubling of population should be thoroughly vetted with the inclusions of experts outside the government. Even more so, Albertans should be given the ability to address their concerns in a public forum. In putting Alberta first, it is vital to push back against coercive fiscal federalism, and increasing Alberta’s demographic profile is one way to be more assertive. However, it should be done without compromising the existing quality of life of Albertans.